Cat among the pigeons
Hage Geingob faces the possibility of being the first Swapo presidential candidate to garner less votes than the party in the upcoming general election.
The ongoing political turmoil within Swapo, which has given rise to the phenomenon of an independent candidate or candidates standing against the party president during the upcoming general election, has placed head of state Hage Geingob's overwhelming support in the 2014 presidential poll under pressure.
In 2014, riding a wave of popularity, Geingob received 86.73% of the vote in the presidential race, while Swapo received 80.01% of the National Assembly votes, thus continuing the longstanding tradition of Swapo presidential candidates garnering more votes than the party during general elections.
However, times have now changed. Dr Panduleni Itula, who some argue is still aligned to the Team Swapo faction within the party, has already indicated he will be standing against Geingob as an independent candidate while stubbornly refusing to relinquish his Swapo membership.
It is widely expected that former National Union of Namibian Workers (NUNW) secretary-general Evilastus Kaaronda, who is now at the helm of the non-aligned Namibia National Labour Organisation (Nanlo), will announce his candidacy next Sunday.
Kaaronda refused to confirm or deny this yesterday, but said he will be making a “big announcement” on 16 June that would “bring about real change in this country”.
There are also persistent rumours that former Namibian Institute of Public Administration and Management (Nipam) executive director Dr Joseph Diescho, who remains an ardent Geingob critic, will also throw his hat into the ring at a later stage.
Constitutional expert Nico Horn believes Geingob's popularity has taken a huge beating since the last election.
He, however, anticipates that Geingob's presidential vote will not be lower than 65% this time around.
“You must understand that people north of the old Red Line will never vote for an independent candidate. The president's vote will drop dramatically, but I cannot imagine it will go below 65%,” he said.
Social commentator Ndumba Kamwanyah also believes that unhappiness among the youth, and the growing negative reactions towards government, will hurt Geingob's popularity.
According to him the recent announcement by government that workers should make a voluntary contribution towards drought relief has put Geingob in a bad light.
Henning Melber argued that if independents stand as presidential candidates, they may, to a small extent, affect the votes cast for Geingob.
However, they would certainly not pose a threat to presidential candidates of opposition parties, such as McHenry Venaani and Bernadus Swartbooi, he said.
“They have their own support bases, which will not move away from them. If at all, some voters will, as a form of protest, not vote for Geingob, but for one of 'independents'. At the end, the difference will be rather small. I would be surprised if it would change voting patterns more,” said Melber.
He added the current debate might, however, indicate some seismographic shifts from Team Swapo, which Geingob will have to observe carefully.
“It is of course not the first time that in an election year the party's internal differences are also publicly visible. It remains to be seen to which extent this leaves a mark on the electoral college of the party. For the time being, I am sceptical that it is more than a storm in a tea cup, and rather much ado about nothing, since I cannot see that the anti-Geingob forces have any coordinated, broadly-based and anchored approach,” said Melber.
Kamwanyah said independent candidates are critical, as they give voters options, rather than focussing on just one candidate.
He, however, said their decision to stand must be based on issues.
Kamwanyah cautioned that independent candidates should not just stand because they lost out on opportunities within their parties, but should rather be driven by issues, policy change and nation-building.
“They must bring new energy, new thinking and new perspectives. An empty independent candidate does not add to a country's democracy. Such a candidate must be driven by hopes and development, and must be linked to issues,” he said.
Kamwanyah too is not convinced that Geingob's vote will be affected significantly.
“It is difficult to predict because we do not know what their platforms are. What I can say is that it will be difficult because they will be facing a Goliath in the form of Swapo. Swapo is very strong in the squatter camps, the rural areas and the north of the country. But Swapo may face serious problems in Windhoek, among the youth and educated people,” said Kamwanyah.
He added the emergence of independent candidates is an indictment on Swapo's non-performance and poses no threat to opposition parties and their presidential candidates.
JEMIMA BEUKES
In 2014, riding a wave of popularity, Geingob received 86.73% of the vote in the presidential race, while Swapo received 80.01% of the National Assembly votes, thus continuing the longstanding tradition of Swapo presidential candidates garnering more votes than the party during general elections.
However, times have now changed. Dr Panduleni Itula, who some argue is still aligned to the Team Swapo faction within the party, has already indicated he will be standing against Geingob as an independent candidate while stubbornly refusing to relinquish his Swapo membership.
It is widely expected that former National Union of Namibian Workers (NUNW) secretary-general Evilastus Kaaronda, who is now at the helm of the non-aligned Namibia National Labour Organisation (Nanlo), will announce his candidacy next Sunday.
Kaaronda refused to confirm or deny this yesterday, but said he will be making a “big announcement” on 16 June that would “bring about real change in this country”.
There are also persistent rumours that former Namibian Institute of Public Administration and Management (Nipam) executive director Dr Joseph Diescho, who remains an ardent Geingob critic, will also throw his hat into the ring at a later stage.
Constitutional expert Nico Horn believes Geingob's popularity has taken a huge beating since the last election.
He, however, anticipates that Geingob's presidential vote will not be lower than 65% this time around.
“You must understand that people north of the old Red Line will never vote for an independent candidate. The president's vote will drop dramatically, but I cannot imagine it will go below 65%,” he said.
Social commentator Ndumba Kamwanyah also believes that unhappiness among the youth, and the growing negative reactions towards government, will hurt Geingob's popularity.
According to him the recent announcement by government that workers should make a voluntary contribution towards drought relief has put Geingob in a bad light.
Henning Melber argued that if independents stand as presidential candidates, they may, to a small extent, affect the votes cast for Geingob.
However, they would certainly not pose a threat to presidential candidates of opposition parties, such as McHenry Venaani and Bernadus Swartbooi, he said.
“They have their own support bases, which will not move away from them. If at all, some voters will, as a form of protest, not vote for Geingob, but for one of 'independents'. At the end, the difference will be rather small. I would be surprised if it would change voting patterns more,” said Melber.
He added the current debate might, however, indicate some seismographic shifts from Team Swapo, which Geingob will have to observe carefully.
“It is of course not the first time that in an election year the party's internal differences are also publicly visible. It remains to be seen to which extent this leaves a mark on the electoral college of the party. For the time being, I am sceptical that it is more than a storm in a tea cup, and rather much ado about nothing, since I cannot see that the anti-Geingob forces have any coordinated, broadly-based and anchored approach,” said Melber.
Kamwanyah said independent candidates are critical, as they give voters options, rather than focussing on just one candidate.
He, however, said their decision to stand must be based on issues.
Kamwanyah cautioned that independent candidates should not just stand because they lost out on opportunities within their parties, but should rather be driven by issues, policy change and nation-building.
“They must bring new energy, new thinking and new perspectives. An empty independent candidate does not add to a country's democracy. Such a candidate must be driven by hopes and development, and must be linked to issues,” he said.
Kamwanyah too is not convinced that Geingob's vote will be affected significantly.
“It is difficult to predict because we do not know what their platforms are. What I can say is that it will be difficult because they will be facing a Goliath in the form of Swapo. Swapo is very strong in the squatter camps, the rural areas and the north of the country. But Swapo may face serious problems in Windhoek, among the youth and educated people,” said Kamwanyah.
He added the emergence of independent candidates is an indictment on Swapo's non-performance and poses no threat to opposition parties and their presidential candidates.
JEMIMA BEUKES
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