Bolsonaro's challenges as he takes charge of Brazil

While the far-right politician enjoys sky-high popularity, the challenges to his agenda are formidable.

04 January 2019 | Economics

Marc Burleigh - Brazil's new president, Jair Bolsonaro, has promised to radically change the path taken by Latin America's biggest country by trashing decades of centre-left policies.

But while the far-right politician enjoys sky-high popularity, the challenges to his agenda are formidable.

Brazil is a commodity-exporting powerhouse but it's still limping out of a record-breaking recession that eradicated many gains from the stellar period of prosperity it enjoyed just a decade ago.

Bolsonaro has appointed a free-marketeer, Paulo Guedes, as economy minister to push through reforms to bring down Brazil's swelling debt, mainly through privatisations, tax changes and encouraging foreign investment.

Congress

One of the trickiest problems will be cutting back on Brazil's unsustainable pension system, which requires an overhaul of the constitution.

But Bolsonaro's far-right Social Liberal Party does not have a majority in Congress. To pass legislation he will be relying on ad-hoc alliances with backbenchers in various parties who are part of his evangelical, pro-agribusiness, pro-gun base.

Eurasia Group, a consulting firm, notes the reforms pose "a real challenge". The big swing in public support behind Bolsonaro could give him the legislative firepower he needs, if he moves early in his term - but even then "expect a lot of drama" in Congress, it said.

Trump

Brazil's new orientation will quickly be clear to the world through its diplomacy. And a lot of that is inspired by US president Donald Trump, whom Bolsonaro admires.

Bolsonaro has already said he will pull his country out a UN global migration pact, and he is deciding whether to do the same with the Paris accord on climate change and on whether to move Brazil's embassy in Israel to Jerusalem - all measures aligned with Trump.

Additionally, he is hostile to greater Chinese investment in Brazil, and he has said he will do all he can to challenge the leftist governments of Cuba and Venezuela.

Bolsonaro's two main promises are to crack down on Brazil's rampant crime and extinguish political corruption.

Crime

The ex-military man wants laws eased so "good" people can own guns to deter armed assailants. Critics fear that could usher in a "Wild West" in a country where there are already nearly 64 000 homicides annually.

Police officers - responsible for some 5 000 deaths a year - will be given greater impunity under Bolsonaro.

The fight against corruption has been under way since 2014, under a sprawling anti-graft probe known as "Car Wash" that has snared many political and corporate chiefs. In a savvy move, Bolsonaro has named the judge who led "Car Wash," Sergio Moro, as his justice minister.

But corruption in Brazil has deep roots, and any evidence of it in Bolsonaro's inner circle - some allegations are already being investigated - or his party could rapidly damage his image.

Another domestic challenge will be protecting Brazil's environment, which includes the Amazon, sometimes called "the lungs of the planet". Bolsonaro has indicated he will put mining and farming interests above conservation. – Nampa/AFP

KASSIE

Indigenous land

Brazil's newly inaugurated president issued an executive order on Wednesday making the ministry of agriculture responsible for deciding on lands claimed by indigenous peoples, in a victory for agribusiness that will likely enrage environmentalists.

During his presidential campaign, far-right Jair Bolsonaro said he was considering placing indigenous affairs under the ministry of agriculture, alleging lands should be opened to commercial activities that are currently banned.

Bolsonaro has now decided to move indigenous affairs agency FUNAI into a new ministry for family, women and human rights, and so the key decision on land claims will be in the hands of an agriculture ministry with deep ties to Brazil's powerful farm sector.

Critics say Bolsonaro's plan to open indigenous reservations to commercial activity will destroy native cultures and languages by integrating the tribes into Brazilian society.

Environmentalists say the native peoples are the last custodians of the Amazon, the world's largest rainforest that is vital for climate stability. – Nampa/AFP

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