Rain on our doorstep

More showers of blessing predicted

11 October 2019 | Local News

Clouds are gathering across broad swathes of Namibia and there are expectations of widespread rainfall over most parts of the country today and tomorrow.

In a welcome outlook provided by the Namibia Meteorological Service (NMS), chief meteorologist Odillo Kgobetsi said the first rain of the season was expected on Wednesday in all the northern regions and in the east, including Gobabis. Further rain is expected today and tomorrow over most parts of the country, apart from the //Karas Region, he said.

“More than 15 mm is expected in places in the central-north, north-west and the Hardap and Khomas regions over the weekend.”



Seasonal

A recent statement on rainfall prospects for the rest of the year said the outlook for the next three months looked positive.

The statement noted that during October, November and December the country is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

During the January, February March window next year, however, Namibia is expected to receive normal to below-normal rainfall except over the Zambezi Region where normal to above-normal rainfall is forecast.

Dirkse states further that there is 35% probability in the above-normal category, a 40% probability in the normal category and 25% probability in the below-normal category for the period October to December 2019.

During the period January to March 2020 most of the country can expect a 25% probability of above-normal rains, a 40% probability in the normal category and 35% probability in the below-normal category.

In the Zambezi Region there is a 35% probability of above-normal rainfall, a 40% probability in the normal category and 25% probability in the below-normal category.

The statement underlined that since August 2019 the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean have been above average but ENSO neutral and are expected to continue as ENSO neutral.

A small number of models predict redevelopment of a weak El Nino towards the end of the year or early 2020.

There is a 40% likelihood for the development of weak El Nino towards the end of the year and 50% likelihood that ENSO-neutral conditions will prevail.

Statistical and dynamic climate prediction models were used to determine the likelihood of above-normal, normal and below-normal rainfall for each area for overlapping three-monthly periods.

Below-normal is defined as within the driest third of rainfall amounts of the 30 years (1971 to 2000 and/or 1981 to 2010) rainfall amounts, while above-normal rainfall is defined as lying within the wettest third of recorded rainfall amounts and normal is the middle third, centred on the climatological median.

JANA-MARI SMITH