Frosty July lies ahead

22 June 2021 | Weather

ELLANIE SMIT

WINDHOEK

Temperatures will drop significantly from the end of this month and frost can be expected throughout most of July, even up to the northern parts of Namibia.

This is according to the latest weather and rainfall update by South African climatologist Johan van den Berg, a climate scientist at Santam Agriculture.

According to him, little or no rainfall is expected in Namibia in spring, but the outlook is positive for summer rainfall starting from about November.

Van den Berg says all El Niño areas were at normal or long-term average temperature levels in the third week of June this year. He says it is expected to remain neutral until at least September to November.

Current forecasts indicate the development of a weak La Niña from about September/October, but it is still uncertain whether it will remain at neutral levels or can develop to reach the La Niña threshold. There is a 90% certainty that it will not develop towards El Niño levels.

He adds that the Indian Ocean temperatures are positive for summer rainfall.

“ENSO (El Niño and the Southern Oscillation) is in a neutral state, but it is possible that a weak La Niña may develop towards early summer that can also enhance summer rainfall conditions.”

Van den Berg says rainfall outlooks for the summer of 2021/2022 are positive for the central to eastern parts of Southern Africa from about October, but less favourable for the western parts.

He says if La Niña development takes place in early summer, it can further enhance the probability of rain, even for the more western parts.

El Niño and La Niña are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide.

Temperature

Following a spell of moderate temperatures from about 8 June until 16 June, very cold conditions can again set in from about 20 June over the central to southern interior, especially from 24 to 27 June when minimum temperatures are expected to be well below freezing point. Extreme cold conditions are again possible in the second and third week of July.