Namibia Air faces N$3bn test ahead of December take-off

Government's proposed new national airline is being planned around a N$3 billion, five-year investment and a seven-aircraft fleet worth about N$594 million.

Its first flight is targeted for December, leaving just months to turn the plan into a working carrier.

The N$3 billion figure is contained in Swapo's 2025–2030 manifesto implementation plan, which sets out the amount required over five years to establish the airline, acquire or lease aircraft and develop an aircraft maintenance station.

The plan does not provide a public breakdown of how the money would be raised, when it would be invested or how much would come from Treasury and private partners.

The only specific government allocation publicly confirmed so far is N$20 million for a feasibility study. Works minister Veikko Nekundi told the National Assembly in June that less than 4% had been used because an inter-ministerial team largely conducted the study, putting expenditure below N$800 000.

The study has been completed and is under review, but its findings have not been released even as government works towards a December launch.

The unpublished feasibility study leaves unclear which costs are included in the N$3 billion estimate.

Sourcing a fleet

More detail has instead emerged from Namibia Air's applications for scheduled and non-scheduled air service licences, published in Government Gazette No. 8971 of 8 July.

These comprise four 50-seat ERJ 145s estimated at US$3 million each and three larger E170/E175 aircraft at US$8 million each.

The ERJ 145s would have to come from the used-aircraft market as serial production ended in 2011.

Embraer says the ERJ 145 remains in service with 36 airlines in 26 countries, while the wider ERJ135/140/145 family had about 360 aircraft operating worldwide at the end of 2025.

The US$8 million estimate for each E170/E175 also strongly suggests that they are used aircraft. Embraer announced a June 2025 SkyWest order for 60 new E175s valued at US$3.6 billion at list prices, equivalent to US$60 million each.

Although airlines typically negotiate substantial discounts, the comparison illustrates the difference between new-aircraft values and Namibia Air's estimates.

With December targeted for the first flight, the aircraft age and condition become important because publicly available information does not identify individual airframes, manufacturing dates, flight hours, cycles, maintenance histories or engine condition.

These factors can materially affect the economics of used aircraft because the purchase price is only part of the cost, with engines, heavy maintenance, components, refurbishment and spares potentially requiring additional expenditure.

Beyond aircraft acquisition, the airline would need working capital and funding for maintenance, fuel, insurance, personnel, training, ground handling, airport charges, reservation systems and the proposed maintenance facility.

Air Namibia's warning

The financial assumptions are particularly significant when compared with Air Namibia, which, according to World Bank assessment reports, carried 554 000 passengers in 2019 and accounted for about 44% of Namibia's aviation market.

It employed 733 people and operated eight international and five domestic routes with 12 aircraft.

Despite carrying more than half a million passengers, Air Namibia remained dependent on government support. The World Bank records N$740 million in state support in 2018/19, N$676 million budgeted for 2019/20 and N$984.6 million allocated or budgeted for 2020/21.

The IMF estimates that direct government support imposed a cumulative fiscal cost of at least N$8 billion over two decades.

The World Bank found that Frankfurt accounted for about 80% of its losses, mainly due to low load factors and the cost of leasing two Airbus A330-200 aircraft, while Luanda was its most profitable route.

Namibia Air's smaller regional jets therefore represent a significant departure from that model and could allow the carrier to match capacity to domestic and regional demand without immediately incurring wide-body long-haul costs.

The competitive environment has also changed with the arrival of FlyNamibia.

When FlyNamibia was launched as WestAir in June 2019, it ran scheduled domestic services and captured about 15% of the market that year.

It has since become an established scheduled carrier, meaning Namibia Air would not simply replace capacity lost when Air Namibia closed in 2021.

On routes already served by existing airlines, Namibia Air would have to generate additional demand or compete for existing passengers.

Its licence applications estimate an addressable market of about 800 000 passengers across proposed domestic and regional services. This represents the potential market and should not be interpreted as a projection that Namibia Air itself will carry 800 000 passengers.