Four-year race to put more EVs on the roads

Namibia is aiming to make almost half of all new vehicles entering the country electric or hybrid within the next four years, a green ambition which will likely cost more than N$13 billion to pull off.

The draft Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) proposes that 45% of standard annual vehicle imports should be electric or hybrid vehicles by 2030. The plan was presented during this week’s stakeholder consultation in Otjiwarongo.

The target is split across different categories, with 20% of passenger vehicles, 15% of light commercial vehicles and 10% of medium and heavy vehicles.

The proposed shift would not come cheaply. The draft puts the estimated cost of the battery-electric vehicle programme at US$809 million, or roughly N$13.1 billion.

That money would cover measures needed to support the transition, including charging infrastructure, vehicle uptake and related systems.

For ordinary motorists, however, the proposal is about more than simply replacing petrol and diesel cars with electric ones.

Government would need to make it easier and more affordable for people to buy electric vehicles, while ensuring they have somewhere to charge them.

The draft proposes introducing incentives such as VAT and import-duty exemptions for battery-electric vehicles and charging equipment, as well as a possible zero environmental levy on electric vehicles and their charging components.

It also proposes developing national standards for charging stations, including rules on how different charging networks communicate with one another and how charging tariffs are structured.

Big jump

The proposed target comes after government assessed progress under NDC 2.0.

The previous plan was significantly more ambitious in terms of the number of vehicles it envisaged converting.

It targeted the conversion of 96 500 light vehicles and 7 000 heavy vehicles from conventional engines to battery-electric vehicles, while also including a separate pathway for hydrogen-powered vehicles.

The estimated implementation cost for the combined road-transport measure under NDC 2.0 was US$4.44 billion.

But progress had been slow. Only about 100 to 200 electric vehicles were on the roads, far below the previous target, while charging infrastructure remained limited. At the time of assessing progress, the heavy-vehicle electric conversion target had not started at the scale originally envisaged.

The revised plan therefore appears to separate the electric-vehicle push from the more difficult hydrogen-vehicle ambitions, with greater emphasis in the near term on electric vehicles, public charging infrastructure, government and fleet procurement, and electric-bus pilots.

Charging network

There is already some movement on the infrastructure needed for the transition.

The Electricity Control Board adopted an EV charging infrastructure regulatory framework in 2024, providing a basis for regulating charging services, licensing, tariffs and how charging stations connect to the electricity grid.

In June, the transport ministry installed an electric-vehicle charging station at its Windhoek headquarters to assess the feasibility of developing a wider charging network. The station was designed by the ministry's own engineers and is intended to provide lessons for future infrastructure deployment.

There are also private initiatives. Namibian Sun reported last year that Grove Mall had introduced a public EV charging station, while a separate initiative saw Tesla Energy Solutions donate a charging station worth about N$120 000 to the Windhoek municipality.

Earlier efforts also included M&Z's rollout of solar-powered charging stations, with the company announcing plans in 2023 to expand its network beyond Windhoek.

Affordability

The transition could ultimately reduce motorists' running costs, but the upfront price of electric vehicles remains a major consideration.

EV specialist Jens Den told Namibian Sun in a previous report that an electric vehicle could cost about N$0.50 per kilometre to operate, compared with roughly N$3 for a fuel-powered vehicle, although the purchase price and availability of vehicles remain notable barriers.

The draft also recognises another problem: as motorists move away from petrol and diesel, government could lose revenue collected through fuel levies.

It therefore proposes reviewing the Road Fund Administration's fuel-levy model and developing another way to finance road maintenance as electric and hydrogen vehicles become more common.

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